Estimating Super Tuesday Results

Here is my forecast of the Super Tuesday results.

Democrats:
Both Clinton and Obama will win some of the state contests. I expect Clinton to win 55-60% of the delegates with Obama winning the rest. Super Tuesday will not end the contest. Obama raised $30 million in December so he will still have money to spend.

Republicans:
McCain will win most of the states with a few going to Romney and maybe a couple to Huckabee. After South Carolina and Florida the party leadership, the endorsements, and the media all seem to be swinging McCain's way. I don't think enough people trust Romney's conservative credentials enough to swing the election his way. McCain has his conservative detractors but his long record is mostly conservative with some moderate elements. He at least has a track record so people have a good idea what he will do. Huckabee does not have the name recognition, the money, or a broad enough constituency to win the nomination. I expect him to drop out of the race after Super Tuesday or just stay on the ballot but not really pursue the nomination.

Hopefully the people in states holding later primaries will have at least one meaningful contest.

Paul